30th April - what does it all mean?

I haven't commented on this computer stuff because I simply don't have the technical knowledge to make head nor tail of it.

However, stepping back and looking at the bigger picture, if the date of 30th April is in fact correct, it points to premeditation and pre-planning, something that would fit the theory of Dr. Ludke and something that would take this crime to a whole new level*.

I am not sure I can buy that.  Not only is it chillingly evil, it doesn't make any sense.  The first appearances of Kate and Gerry were very raw. in particular, Kate looked genuinely traumatised, she wasn't acting and those early photographs of her show significant bruising to her wrists and arms. 

Also, from a logical perspective, it makes very little sense.  If you are planning to murder your child, there are a multitude of ways in which you could do it without placing yourself at so much risk.  How cold, callous and calculating would you be to take the child on a family holiday with friends in order to murder her?  Not only  would you be surrounding yourself by witnesses, you would be taking your chances with a foreign police force and a foreign criminal justice system that was beyond your control. 

No-one can dispute that the disappearance of Madeleine caused a media phenomenon, but it wasn't something that could have been predicted.  Nor could it have been foreseen that the public would have responded so generously.  The abduction story was seriously flawed from the outset!  If there was any preplanning, then it was crap. The first biggest hurdle the parents had to overcome was the neglect aspect, they had to convince the watching world that they were blameless, despite leaving 3 toddlers alone whilst they were at a bar. Not an easy feat.  They also had to persuade their professional friends to admit to the same neglect of their children, thus also putting them at risk of neglect charges and possible repercussions to their medical careers.

I have always approached my study of this case from a KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid) perspective, I have seen what happens to the overthinkers - their heads explode (see Tony Bennett and CMoMM).  There is a theory that there was no neglect - that is, all the children were looked after in one apartment each night, whilst the parents were 'swinging' (bed hopping).  This is a theory that has sprung up from the armchair detectives and not one that is supported by Goncalo Amaral.  I too think it is unlikely, because 1. Kate would pulverise any woman who even looked at Gerry, and 2. when your kids are toddlers you are exhausted and desperate for adult conversation, not hanky panky.  And seriously, would you bring your mother along?

In addition, if the kids were indeed being looked after each night, why would the tapas friends put their own necks on the line by confessing to a crime they didn't commit?  There was a strong possibly that the parents and their friends could have faced criminal charges, and as doctors there is always a risk of being struck off the Medical Register.

There is also a theory that Madeleine died earlier in the week, which might fit in with the '30th April' date, but again it throws up a scenario that is unthinkable.  Effectively, the parents and the group would have had to continue their holiday, crèche routines, tennis playing, nightly dinners etc, for the next 2+ days as if nothing had happened.  They would also have to rely on all the small children not to ask where Maddie was. 

I am not saying death earlier in the week is impossible, and it would fit in with the alerts of the blood and the cadaver dogs.  I have always struggled to understand how the smell of cadaver could have accumulated in two places (behind sofa and in wardrobe) in such a short period of time if Madeleine died on the evening of 3rd May.  However, I trust the first hand findings and theories of Goncalo Amaral, in that Madeleine was alive on 3rd May and seen by independent witnesses.  If she had died prior to 3rd May, it would involve a lot more people telling a lot more lies.

There are hundreds, if not thousands of people playing Cluedo in their heads in an attempt to 'solve' this mystery - each and every one aiming for that 'gotcha' moment, that one piece of the jigsaw that will crack the case.  If CEOP were indeed preparing for the missing Madeleine story on 30th April, it would be dynamite, but when you look at the implications, it is completely illogical. 

Having said that, when looking at this case, you might as well throw your logical cap out the window.  Tis the twists, turns and WTF moments that keep us gripped.  Who could have foreseen former suspects who refused to answer questions, being awarded cash from the detective who investigated their case? 

I suspect this topic will be around for a while and I will watch with interest, but I can't help thinking if those who devised this cunning plan had more time they would have come up with something far less fantastical and involving fewer people. But having said that, the scale of Operation Grange and the time it is taking suggests much more than a stranger abduction or an accident.

  
 
 * http://www.gerrymccannsblogs.co.uk/DR_CHRISTIAN_LUDKE.htm