Monday 29 June 2015

30th April - what does it all mean?

I haven't commented on this computer stuff because I simply don't have the technical knowledge to make head nor tail of it.

However, stepping back and looking at the bigger picture, if the date of 30th April is in fact correct, it points to premeditation and pre-planning, something that would fit the theory of Dr. Ludke and something that would take this crime to a whole new level*.

I am not sure I can buy that.  Not only is it chillingly evil, it doesn't make any sense.  The first appearances of Kate and Gerry were very raw. in particular, Kate looked genuinely traumatised, she wasn't acting and those early photographs of her show significant bruising to her wrists and arms. 

Also, from a logical perspective, it makes very little sense.  If you are planning to murder your child, there are a multitude of ways in which you could do it without placing yourself at so much risk.  How cold, callous and calculating would you be to take the child on a family holiday with friends in order to murder her?  Not only  would you be surrounding yourself by witnesses, you would be taking your chances with a foreign police force and a foreign criminal justice system that was beyond your control. 

No-one can dispute that the disappearance of Madeleine caused a media phenomenon, but it wasn't something that could have been predicted.  Nor could it have been foreseen that the public would have responded so generously.  The abduction story was seriously flawed from the outset!  If there was any preplanning, then it was crap. The first biggest hurdle the parents had to overcome was the neglect aspect, they had to convince the watching world that they were blameless, despite leaving 3 toddlers alone whilst they were at a bar. Not an easy feat.  They also had to persuade their professional friends to admit to the same neglect of their children, thus also putting them at risk of neglect charges and possible repercussions to their medical careers.

I have always approached my study of this case from a KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid) perspective, I have seen what happens to the overthinkers - their heads explode (see Tony Bennett and CMoMM).  There is a theory that there was no neglect - that is, all the children were looked after in one apartment each night, whilst the parents were 'swinging' (bed hopping).  This is a theory that has sprung up from the armchair detectives and not one that is supported by Goncalo Amaral.  I too think it is unlikely, because 1. Kate would pulverise any woman who even looked at Gerry, and 2. when your kids are toddlers you are exhausted and desperate for adult conversation, not hanky panky.  And seriously, would you bring your mother along?

In addition, if the kids were indeed being looked after each night, why would the tapas friends put their own necks on the line by confessing to a crime they didn't commit?  There was a strong possibly that the parents and their friends could have faced criminal charges, and as doctors there is always a risk of being struck off the Medical Register.

There is also a theory that Madeleine died earlier in the week, which might fit in with the '30th April' date, but again it throws up a scenario that is unthinkable.  Effectively, the parents and the group would have had to continue their holiday, crèche routines, tennis playing, nightly dinners etc, for the next 2+ days as if nothing had happened.  They would also have to rely on all the small children not to ask where Maddie was. 

I am not saying death earlier in the week is impossible, and it would fit in with the alerts of the blood and the cadaver dogs.  I have always struggled to understand how the smell of cadaver could have accumulated in two places (behind sofa and in wardrobe) in such a short period of time if Madeleine died on the evening of 3rd May.  However, I trust the first hand findings and theories of Goncalo Amaral, in that Madeleine was alive on 3rd May and seen by independent witnesses.  If she had died prior to 3rd May, it would involve a lot more people telling a lot more lies.

There are hundreds, if not thousands of people playing Cluedo in their heads in an attempt to 'solve' this mystery - each and every one aiming for that 'gotcha' moment, that one piece of the jigsaw that will crack the case.  If CEOP were indeed preparing for the missing Madeleine story on 30th April, it would be dynamite, but when you look at the implications, it is completely illogical. 

Having said that, when looking at this case, you might as well throw your logical cap out the window.  Tis the twists, turns and WTF moments that keep us gripped.  Who could have foreseen former suspects who refused to answer questions, being awarded cash from the detective who investigated their case? 

I suspect this topic will be around for a while and I will watch with interest, but I can't help thinking if those who devised this cunning plan had more time they would have come up with something far less fantastical and involving fewer people. But having said that, the scale of Operation Grange and the time it is taking suggests much more than a stranger abduction or an accident.



  1. My thoughts too, Cristobell.

  2. I agree with what you say Cristobel regarding the computer stuff, I think there will be a logical explanation for it. Again agree that the accident ??? occurred on the night she was reported missing and I think the Feak up on the night was caused by a traumatised KMC failing to play the part scripted for her. What I don’t agree with is the neglect story, I think they may have left the children on the night the supposed adduction took place but I think that was only to allow an opening for the abduction. I just can’t believe that 4 sets of parent and a grandmother (9 individuals) would have the same lax attitude to childcare of babies. I have a fairly relaxed attitude myself, when mine were babies asleep I would go to the shop 4 doors away but I was never comfortable and ran the there and back, however many people I know would be horrified taking that risk. I’m also not so sure I would dismiss the S theory, as you say it is taking 4 years and counting to investigate stalkers big secret, why not S. I agree with you on KMC thoughts on anybody going near G, but I also think he is very controlling and it could be something that she could have been persuaded to do. I think the tapas gang were highly ambitious people and S in certain circles can be as much to do power and connections as it has to do with S. KMC obvious mental instability could have been caused by the turmoil she was in, in not comfortable with the S but the need to meet G needs and ambitions. I think the reference in the book to the lack of S appetite for G alludes to something strange in that area. A couple of posts back you referred to why you felt KMC appeared so happy in that weeks and months after, stating that she finally had the life she craved. I agree totally with you on that he became the devoted husband and father, I also think there is a possibility that he recognised that the turmoil within her brought about by participating in things that she was not completely comfortable with may have led to the accident ???

  3. The media phenomenon was, on the contrary, very predictable. The media storm, which Gerry always complained about, in the media, was created by the McCanns themselves, on purpose. They even paid Bell Pottinger half a million pounds for it.
    Remember J Paxman's reposte to Gerry after the latter's whine during the interview?
    Nothing in this case is clear and factual for us, the public, except this one big set of facts, indisputable facts that I mention here. Those facts are for everyone to see and check.

    And just on another note, if, and I don't know if, there was a McCann-page at CEOP on the 30th of april, then that doesn't mean that it was put there on the 30th. It could have been put on the server anywhere in the past, from the 30th to back in time.

  4. Effectively, the parents and the group would have had to continue their holiday, crèche routines, tennis playing, nightly dinners etc, for the next 2+ days as if nothing had happened. They would also have to rely on all the small children not to ask where Maddie was.

    - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    There have been many times over the years when children have been killed/abused by their parents and the parents carry on with their every day lives as it nothing has happened. You can't ignore that fact as there have been many instances in the news over many years.

    As for the children asking where Madeleine was, I doubt they really knew who Madeleine was. The twins were only 18 months old when Madeleine "disappeared", If Madeleine was looked after by a family member or someone outside the family for most of her short life she would be a stranger to the twins and probably the Tapas children as well.

    They may know her name "Madeleine" but as to whether the children could identify her in a line up I doubt it very much.

  5. You have a point 14:20, there have been such cases but I doubt they have involved so many people. Although, the fact that these same people have kept silent for 8 years could well prove your point further, if they could be silent after, they could be silent before.

    The evidence of the independent witnesses, the staff from Warners, is a different matter. As they did not know Madeleine personally, there could be room for doubt as to whether it was actually Maddie they saw on 3rd May. However, this is not something that can be solved by armchair detectives because they only have 8 year old statements to go on.

    Meanwhile, the plot certainly thickens, thank you for your post.

  6. This viewpoint got me kicked off of umpteen fora before - so I guess it won't stay on this blog for long = but let's cut to the chase

    As odious as G&K appear to many - they are not child murderers and/or abusers

    I don't believe the dogs alerted to Madeleine's cadaverine - both Levy and Grime made tens of thousands out of that sweet little fallacy - ask yourself - as always - Cui bono - to whose benefit?.

    The reality - if there is one - is far more mundane - surrogacy - a deal reneged on-
    questions about paternity - and last but not least - Ward of Court

    No dodgy window locks in this spiel, no fridges or foxes or volcanoes

    Occams Razor - Gilette Mach 3

    I take my coat

  7. No need to get your coat 23:05, I'm not precious about any theory.

    You say as odious as Kate and Gerry are, they are not child murderers and/or abusers. That's quite a sweeping statement and one that many people seem to have bought into, they are just not the type, if there is a type that is. They are much too normal, PLU - People Like Us, ergo that they could commit such a crime is unthinkable.

    However, we don't actually know what Kate and Gerry are capable of. We know that they have had the front to appear before dozens/hundreds of interviewers, television cameras etc, and lie through their teeth, this past 8 years, which is something most PLU would not be able to do.

    We also know they are both short tempered, we have seen demonstrations of anger from both of them, the God complex often comes into play 'we know more than you do' and they use their elevated 'doctor' status to avoid questions. I'm afraid the fact that they have been able to roll out so many lies this past 8 years makes them capable of anything.

    As for the blood and cadaver dogs. Well, dogs don't and can't lie. They did exactly what they were trained to do. They searched dozens of apartments and cars and they only reacted to property of the McCanns (11 times). I discard any theory that doesn't take account of the evidence of the dogs.

    As for surrogacy - I'm afraid that sounds like the plot of a very bad 'B' movie rather than reality. As complex as this case appears, the reality is probably very simple and right in front of our eyes.

    I do however believe the dogs. Dogs don't and indeed they can't, lie.

  8. 23:05,
    Every time I hear someone dismiss the dogs it makes me very suspicious of their motives for doing so. Tell me this, nobody died in the apartment before the McCann's arrived, there's no proof Kate dealt with six dead people before the holiday, so where in your opinion did the cadaver come from?

    Are you suggesting someone entered the apartment and slapped a sea-bass about the place just so Kate and Jerry would become suspects? If you think that's ridiculous you'd be correct. Next we'll be hearing the cadaver was bottled, and somebody contaminated the apartment that way.

    There's no proof that Madeleine was abducted and until there is.. the parent's in my opinion remain the main suspects.

  9. Just to add to my post at 09:54, If the McCann's are so innocent why have they done there best to hide behind their protectors for so long? All we really know about them is that they are manipulators with a high opinion of themselves. They lie and scheme, to wriggle out of any responsibility regarding what situation Madeleine found herself in, caring parent's my arse!!

    Caring parent's wouldn't refuse to answer any questions put to them, they would do a reconstruction, they would allow medical information to be looked at.

    Those things along with...missing blue bag! toothbrushes, shower curtain? all reek of trying to obstruct and stop the investigators finding out what happened to Maddy, no stones left unturned eh! I'm sure there'll be many more stones to be turned before we get to the bottom of the cesspit that they created, the stench gets more overpowering with each passing year.Stopping the scam fund would be a start, removing any silencers put in place to stop people speaking out would be another, then we might get some TRUTH.

  10. I see that your ex drinking buddy Tony is spreading rumours that you will be appearing in Sonia's documentary on Lip TV is the US.

    Can you confirm or deny that please?

  11. I think drinking buddy is going a bit far. For me, a drinking buddy likes to party all night and knows all the words to Flower of Scotland, Danny Boy and All That Jazz (plus dance moves). Tony is more afternoon tea with the vicar.

    As for your question, I couldn't possibly say :)

  12. Mach 3 at 23.05 -

    Your thoughts meander down the same paths as mine.

    Best wishes to you, Cristobell -

    Exciting times...!